Big 12 Expansion

The idea of Big 12 Conference expansion has been in the news a lot lately.  As the smallest - and seemingly most vulnerable - of the so-called "Power Five" conferences, the common assumption is that the Big 12 needs to add teams in order to stabilize and avoid further defections as its seen in recent years (Colorado and Nebraska, Missouri and Texas A&M).  This, of course, comes on the heels of conference realignment that has led multiple schools to change conferences all in the name of the almighty dollar.  This reshuffling has destroyed traditional rivalries and led to anachronisms like a Big 10 with 14 teams, a Big 12 with 10 teams, Missouri (which is neither southern nor eastern) in the Southeastern Conference; and Pittsburgh and Louisville (which are in states that are nowhere near the Atlantic) in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Personally, I love the Big 12 having 10 teams.  I think 10 teams is the ideal size for a conference, as it allows for round robin play in football and double round robin play in basketball.  This helps foster and maintain rivalries, as well as provide a true test for which team is the best, since every team plays every other team every year.  In my view, this makes a lot more sense than these 14 team mega conferences where schools go several years without ever playing some of their conference brethren in football.

However, since it seems like Big 12 expansion is inevitable, I wanted to give my take on which schools will likely be considered and which schools make the most sense.  Here are my thoughts on the expansion possibilities, in alphabetical order:

Arkansas State
Pros: Expands conference footprint into Arkansas.  Adds solid mid-major football program that has won 4 of the last 5 Sun Belt Conference titles. 

Cons:  Lousy basketball.  While they would expand the conference into a new state, I'm not sure how many people in Arkansas care about Arkansas State.

Odds: Slim.  I think it's more likely that Arkansas State's football coach, Blake Anderson, is Baylor's next football coach (he's from Texas and went to Baylor) than it is that Arkansas State gets invited to join the Big 12.

Boise State
Pros: Expands conference footprint west into Idaho.  Adds good football program that has some national cachet.

Cons: Geography.  Boise is far from any other Big 12 school, which compounds the already difficult geographic challenges faced by West Virginia.  Middling academic profile.

Odds: Better than slim but less than several of the schools listed below.  Odds would be increased slightly if other western teams are added.

BYU
Pros: Expands conference footprint into the mountain west.  Strong academics.  Strong football and basketball programs. National profile and large fan base.  Clearly one of the sexiest options available.

Cons: Geography.  Similar to Boise State, having a conference that stretches from Utah to West Virginia presents travel nightmares for non-revenue sports that play their games during the week.  Some Big 12 schools may also have potential issues with BYU's honor code (rules outlawing homosexual behavior, etc.).

Odds: Likely - first tier option.  In my opinion, the geography is potentially the only deal breaker.

Cincinnati
Pros: Expands conference footprint into Ohio.  Solid football and basketball, solid academics.  Provides West Virginia with a closer opponent and eases their travel schedule.  Also, Cincinnati and West Virginia were former Big East opponents, so there is a bit of built-in rivalry as well.

Cons: There aren't really too many, especially if Cincinnati's addition is paired with the addition of a school like Memphis.

Odds:  Likely - first tier option.  I actually argued in favor of adding Cincinnati and Louisville or Pittsburgh several years ago, before the ACC scooped up the latter two.

Colorado State
Pros: Expands conference footprint into the mountain west, back into Colorado.  Solid athletics (football team has gone to a bowl game the last three years) and academics. Large school, decent sized fan base. 

Cons:  Geography is a potential issue, though that issue is minimized if Colorado State is paired with BYU.  The fan base is not as large as you would expect given the size of the school, so I'm not sure how many TV screens they add.

Odds:  Decent - second tier option.  As mentioned earlier, if BYU is added, I think that increases the odds that Colorado State receives strong consideration.

Connecticut
Pros: Expands conference footprint into the northeast.  Decent football, very strong basketball (men's and women's).  Strong academics.  Provides West Virginia with a closer opponent and eases their travel schedule a bit.

Cons: Geography.  While UConn is a closer trip for WVU than other Big 12 schools, it is a LONG way away from everybody else, which poses issues in non-revenue sports.  Selfishly, having UConn in the Big 12 might end Baylor's string of conference titles in women's basketball.

Odds: Decent - second tier option.  UConn's geographic isolation is the biggest potential issue.

Houston
Pros: Geography - easy travel for the majority of the existing Big 12 schools.  Greater access to Houston, one of the largest media markets in the country.  Strong recent football performance.

Cons: A glorified commuter school with mediocre academics.  While people in Houston may care about the Cougars when they are winning, they generally ignore them when they aren't.  As such, the value of adding a team in such a large media market is somewhat contingent upon the team's performance.  Also, UT wants to add them, which is more reason to not do so.  Texas's arrogance and greed is one of the main reasons why the Big 12 is in the predicament they are in in the first place. Finally, adding a fifth school in Texas doesn't expand the conference's footprint.  We already saw what happened to a conference that was too isolated geographically (see the all-Texas based Southwest Conference), so I don't know how much Houston really adds.  Also, if Houston gets passed over, it increases the likelihood that Baylor can nab Tom Herman as their next football coach.

Odds: Unfortunately, thanks to the meddling of UT and Texas's governor, I think this is a more likely, first tier option.

Memphis
Pros: Expands conference footprint into Tennessee, adds a decent-sized media market. Potentially adds FedEx financial largesse.  Makes WVU's travel schedule easier.  Solid football and basketball programs.  If paired with a school like Cincinnati, it significantly pulls conference's footprint eastward, which helps West Virginia and could be a big plus if the conference ever pushes for a TV network.

Cons: Middling academics.  I'm not sure how closely people in Memphis follow the Tigers and I'm not sure how many people outside of Memphis care about them.

Odds:  Likely - first tier option.  Likelihood increases if conference decides to add Cincinnati.

Nebraska
Pros:  Previous Big 12 member, so there are built-in rivalries that can easily be renewed.  It makes sense geographically and brings back another good academic school.  There has been some buyer's remorse among Nebraska fans over their decision to flee to the Big 10 and this fixes that.

Cons: None, besides it's not likely to happen.  Of all of the schools on this list, this is probably the least likely option.

Odds:  Doubtful.

Tulane
Pros: Expands geographic footprint into Louisiana while still offering fairly easy travel for most Big 12 schools.  Strong academics.  Awesome mascot - Green Wave.

Cons: Relatively small, private school in a conference that already has two of them. Mediocre athletics and I'm not sure how much people in New Orleans actually care.

Odds:  Slim.  Probably only an option if the Big 12 adds 4 to 6 teams, and even then, probably less likely than most of the other schools on this list.

There you have it - my thoughts on Big 12 expansion.  It will be interesting to see how it unfolds in the coming months.

Thanks for reading!